11 January 2022
The St Helena Statistics Office has today released new population projections for 2022 to 2051. Population projections are produced to help policy makers and businesses understand how current demographic patterns are likely to shape the future size of different groups of the population.
The projections use the baseline population from the 2021 Population Census, estimates of expected births and deaths, and five different scenarios for the migration of residents, including no net migration, 20 more residents leaving than returning each year, and 20 and 40 more residents arriving than leaving each year.
The projections point to a fall in the total population and the number of residents of working age (see chart), and an increase in the number of residents aged 65 and over. The only migration scenario used which results in an increase in the resident population is one where 40 more residents arrive than leave each year. Even then, the population is projected to remain below 5,000 by 2051, and the number of residents of working age still falls slightly.
Chart: Resident population aged 15-64 (working age), 1976-2021 plus projections for 2022-2051 under different migration scenarios
The number of people working and living on St Helena has an effect on the size of St Helena’s customer base and private sector revenues, and the amount of taxes collected and used to fund government services, such as schools, health care, and infrastructure. The Labour Market Strategy was developed in order to provide a response to the trend of falling working age population numbers on St Helena, and is available at: https://www.sainthelena.gov.sh/labour-market-strategy-2020-2035/
Full details of the projections are available in the report from the Statistics Office, available on the St Helena Government website here: https://www.sainthelena.gov.sh/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Population-Projection-2021-V2.pdf
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11 January 2022