A set of population projections have been released by the Statistics Office, using the baseline of the 2016 Population & Housing Census, and three scenarios about migration to and from St Helena – no migration, low migration and high migration. Both the low and high migration models assume net immigration to St Helena – that is, more people will arrive than will depart.
With no migration, there will likely be a fall in the size of St Helena’s population, because the number of deaths each year is likely to continue to be more than the number of births. The low and high migration models, however, result in an increase in population size. Both the no migration and low migration scenarios result in a reduction in the working age population, and under all three scenarios the old age dependency ratio – the ratio of those aged 65 and over compared to those of working age – increases.
Projected age distribution of St Helena’s population under three migration scenarios
Population projections help understand the size and structure of the future population, and are a useful input for planning and managing St Helena’s development.
But, it is important to bear in mind that these projections are the result of a number of assumptions about the future patterns of growth in St Helena’s population. Small changes in the actual fertility, mortality and migration patterns may have quite large impacts on the size of different groups of the population. For this reason, population projections are not predictions, rather, they show how St Helena’s population would evolve if the assumptions that are made were to hold true.
More details are available in the Bulletin and the accompanying dataset which are available on the Statistics page of the SHG website: http://www.sainthelena.gov.sh/statistics/
For any queries, please contact the Statistics Office on tel: 22138, or email: firstname.lastname@example.org
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10 November 2017