Statistical Update: Gross Domestic Product

New estimates of economic activity on St Helena for 2022/23

This release presents new estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross National Income (GNI) for 2022/23; some small revisions to previous estimates have also been made.

All estimates presented in this release should be considered provisional: GDP estimation is a complex task, and developing appropriate methods and data sources is an ongoing program of work. The statistics and indicators presented in this Bulletin can be downloaded in Excel format here.

Gross Domestic Product

GDP is a key indicator of economic activity used around the world: on St Helena it measures the total value of all the goods and services produced on the island during a year. For 2022/23, GDP at market prices is estimated to be £39.3 million and the annual change in the volume of goods and services produced by the economy compared to 2021/22 is estimated to be -2.1%, a decrease in GDP in real terms (Table 1).

Table 1. Estimates of Gross Domestic Product, 2018/19 to 2022/23, £ million

St Helena’s population size has fallen slightly in the last few years. Adjusted for the size of the population, GDP was estimated to be £9,220 per person in 2022/23, or $11,110 (Table 2). When inflation is taken into account GDP per capita increased slightly, by 0.9%, compared to 2021/22.

Table 2. Estimates of Gross Domestic Product per capita, 2018/19 to 2022/23

Countries with similar GDP per capita in 2022 were Mexico ($11,480), Kazakhstan ($11,480) and the Maldives ($11,780), which were all slightly higher, and Turkiye ($10,670), Mauritius ($10,240) and Dominican Republic ($10,110), all of which were slightly lower (source: World Bank).

Breakdown of value added by industrial activity

Table 3 shows the share of total value added by each major activity grouping (industrial activities are classified according to Revision 4 of the UN International Standard Industrial Classification, grouped to avoid disclosure of information about individual companies). Value added is the key component of GDP, and represents the total output of sole traders, businesses, government, and non-profit organisations, less the value of intermediate consumption (i.e. the value of goods and services used in the process of producing final goods or services.)

Table 3. Value Added by industrial activity, 2022/23

Apart from Government, Public Administration, Health and Education (which accounted for 45.4% of total value added in 2022/23), the largest groups were Finance, Insurance, Information and Communication (15.7%) and Wholesale and Retail Trade, including Repair of Motor Vehicles (12.2%). Production activities, including Quarrying, Manufacturing, Electricity, Water, and Sanitation, contributed around 7.2% of total value added in 2022/23, with Real Estate Activities (including rental properties and the value of owner-occupied housing) at 5.3% and Transportation and Storage (which includes the Airport) around 4.3%.

Gross National Income

A useful alternative measure to GDP is called Gross National Income (GNI), which values the economic activity of the Island’s residents, regardless of where that activity takes place. This is different to GDP, which is a measure of the total value of goods and services produced within the territorial boundaries of St Helena, regardless of whether that value is produced by its residents. GNI is derived from GDP by adding an estimate of the income earned abroad by residents and deducting an estimate of the income earned on St Helena by non-residents.

Table 4 shows the nominal levels of GNI and GNI per capita since 2018/19. St Helena’s estimated GNI per capita level is not yet high enough to have crossed the World Bank threshold that defines a ‘high income’ country; an important implication of this is that the financial support it receives from the United Kingdom and other official aid donors are classified as Official Development Assistance.

Table 4. Gross National Income, 2018/19 to 2022/23

Notes and Methodology

Revisions: Estimates for all previous years from 2017/18 onwards have been revised slightly in this release. GDP estimation and measurement methods are complex and development of St Helena’s National Accounts is an ongoing programme of work. All estimates published in this bulletin should be considered provisional and subject to future revision as additional data sources become available and further improvements are made to the methodology.

Approach: There are three basic methods of compiling total GDP: the expenditure, income, and production (or output) approaches. Prior to 2016, St Helena published estimates based on the expenditure approach, and in 2016 a figure for 2014/15 was published based on the income approach. This Bulletin presents estimates based on the production approach. As far as practicable in a small economy with limited resources for compiling GDP statistics, the methods used aim to follow the international guidance published in the 2008 System of National Accounts by the United Nations.

GDP at basic prices: Estimates at basic prices are derived as the sum of the gross value added of companies and government consumption expenditure, plus the incomes of sole traders, and an estimate of the rental value derived by households from the owner-occupation of their homes. The valuation of the output of government has been made on a net basis, excluding an estimate of asset depreciation (this is common in other small countries). Taxes on production are small and have not generally been included, so the value of GDP at basic prices is roughly equivalent to factor cost.

GDP at market prices: To be consistent with the guidelines issued by the United Nations, GDP at market prices is derived by adding total indirect taxes on products and production (including customs duties and service taxes) to total GDP at basic prices, and subtracting regular government subsidies to companies (currently, this comprises the subsidies paid to Connect Saint Helena Limited and St Helena Airport Limited).

Inflation adjustment: Estimates are presented in both nominal and real terms, referred to in this release as current prices and constant 2022/23 prices. Estimates in nominal terms will change due to both the effect of price changes and because of growth in the size of the economy. But changes in the size of the economy can only be measured using estimates expressed in real terms, adjusted for price inflation. Estimates in real terms have been calculated by applying the recommended method of using specific inflation estimates for each industrial grouping of economic activity, an improvement on past practice of using St Helena’s Retail Price Index.

Measurement issues: There are significant measurement difficulties in obtaining accurate source data for estimating GDP and related indicators for St Helena. Additionally the recommended measurement frameworks and concepts are not always well suited to measuring economic activity in small, aid-dependent economies. Estimates are very sensitive to timing issues and to recording or classification conventions, which while appropriate for larger economies may distort trends and levels in smaller countries. There are further measurement difficulties in calculating GNI; in particular, there are very limited data sources to estimate the income earned abroad by resident individuals and companies and the income earned on St Helena by non-resident individuals and companies.

Per capita estimates: For calculating per capita estimates of GDP and GNI, the population total used is the average of the end of month on-Island population estimates for the period, as published on the St Helena Government website by the Statistics Office.

Currency conversion: For converting from St Helena Pounds (£) to United States Dollars ($), the average monthly spot rates published by the Bank of England have been used for each financial year.

Data sources: The primary sources that have been used to compile GDP and related measures include Income Tax returns, published company accounts, and population estimates published by the Statistics Office. Thanks are extended to all the companies and businesses that have responded to past Business Surveys, to the Income Tax Office for their cooperation and help in using the data from tax returns for this purpose, and to the Immigration Office for their help in using data on arrivals and departures to estimate the size of the population. Data confidentiality is maintained in accordance with the requirements of the 2000 Statistics Ordinance.

Technical advice and support: Compiling estimates of Gross Domestic Product and related National Accounts is a highly specialised task that has only been possible because of the technical advice and support provided by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) Methodology Advisory Service in the United Kingdom – thanks are especially due to Jim O’Donoghue and Robin Youll.

Have more questions or comments?

Please get in touch: we are Neil Fantom, Chief Statistician, Kelly Clingham and Justine Joshua, Senior Statistical Assistants, and Courtney O’Dean, Statistics Assistant. You can find us in person at the Statistics Office on the top floor of the Post Office Building, Jamestown. You can also contact us by telephone on 22138; if calling from overseas, the international dialling code for St Helena is 290. Our general office e-mail address is statistics@sainthelena.gov.sh, or you can email team members directly (the format is firstname.lastname@sainthelena.gov.sh).