27 May 2020
The St Helena Statistics Office has today released a Bulletin which outlines what is known about the expected impact of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the event there is an outbreak on the Island.
This Bulletin provides estimates of the rates of infection and fatalities (deaths) and the statistical models available. It also discusses some of the measurement difficulties and the quality of the data available internationally. The effects of mitigation measures have been described, including those that are in place on St Helena, to prevent the virus from spreading in a community and minimising the impact on a community if transmission was to occur.
Measures such as regular hand washing, social distancing to decrease human contact, testing and isolation of confirmed cases, tracking and tracing of contacts, and quarantine of new arrivals, are all designed to reduce how the virus can spread and therefore reduce the spread of the disease or even to prevent it completely.
While data is being collected by many countries and organisations worldwide, it should be noted that due to COVID-19 being a new illness there are many potential sources of error. Additionally, because St Helena’s population is small models and estimates developed for larger countries may be less accurate when applied to smaller populations. Other factors such as demographic structure, level of pre-existing health conditions in the population and how much a country has been exposed to similar illnesses will have an effect on projected figures.
The full Statistical Bulletin can be found on the St Helena Government website here: https://www.sainthelena.gov.sh/st-helena/statistics/statistics-reports-and-publications/,
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27 May 2020